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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Another NA Team

Tusk
Tusk
The Warden · 11 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
USH · 10 games
70%
Silencer
Silencer
FeelinG · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
FeelinG · 7 games
71%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RRL · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
RRL · 6 games
83%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
RRL · 6 games
50%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sanctified · 7 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Tusk
Tusk
Mark · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 701 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
639 picks · 465 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
577 picks · 929 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 415 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 410 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 370 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1212 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 386 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Another NA Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:33
Another NA Team 46%CDUB Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkArgius
55% · 40 games46% · 67 games
AbaddonDouble King
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRRL
51% · 50 games55% · 54 games
AlchemistislA
Alchemist
Sand King
Sand KingUSH
58% · 22 games45% · 20 games
Legion CommanderMark
Legion Commander
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeThe Warden
31% · 21 game56% · 50 games
TechiesSanctified
Techies
Enchantress
EnchantressFeelinG
45% · 77 games55% · 19 games
Ancient ApparitionDuster
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed43:41
Another NA Team 48%CDUB Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 49:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkArgius
57% · 123 games62% · 34 games
Wraith KingDouble King
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRRL
47% · 388 games50% · 198 games
DoomislA
Doom
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderUSH
46% · 45 games51% · 274 games
PangolierMark
Pangolier
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterThe Warden
45% · 17 games58% · 67 games
TechiesSanctified
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorFeelinG
49% · 267 games39% · 267 games
SnapfireDuster
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct23:31
Another NA Team 50%CDUB Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 29:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArgius
55% · 104 games55% · 79 games
Wraith KingDouble King
Wraith King
Doom
DoomUSH
55% · 146 games44% · 80 games
AlchemistislA
Alchemist
Timbersaw
TimbersawRRL
51% · 99 games45% · 42 games
Legion CommanderMark
Legion Commander
Disruptor
DisruptorFeelinG
49% · 106 games53% · 186 games
DawnbreakerDuster
Dawnbreaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritThe Warden
52% · 37 games41% · 105 games
Skywrath MageSanctified
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 53%
Series resultCDUB Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3