Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Another NA Team
Death Prophetoften banned
Lies · 7 games
Marsoften banned
USH · 6 games
Rubick
Moonlight · 6 games
Silencer
FeelinG · 6 games
Tiny
The Warden · 6 games
Tusk
The Warden · 6 games
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 5 games
Disruptor
FeelinG · 5 games
Eternity
Snapfire
Moonlight · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
CarJua · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
blessed kid · 4 games
Rubick
Aretes · 4 games
Hoodwink
Moonlight · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
Clockwerk
Aretes · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
663 picks · 426 bans
Tusk
575 picks · 543 bans
Tiny
557 picks · 440 bans
Treant Protector
475 picks · 541 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 386 bans
Snapfire
381 picks · 208 bans
Death Prophet
345 picks · 519 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 220 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 20%
Hero pool strength59% Another NA Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Another NA Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:34
Another NA Team 55%Eternity 45%
The model gave 55% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkArgius
SniperCarJua
Nature's ProphetUSH
Batriderblessed kid
Ember SpiritRRL
EnigmaSkyward
TinyThe Warden
ClockwerkMoonlight
Crystal MaidenFeelinG
TuskAretes
Game 2prediction missed29:51
Another NA Team 56%Eternity 44%
The model gave 56% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Eternity in 49:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendArgius
MarciCarJua
Nature's ProphetUSH
Primal BeastSkyward
PangolierRRL
Dazzleblessed kid
SilencerFeelinG
RubickMoonlight
TuskThe Warden
DawnbreakerAretes
Game 3prediction correct36:25
Another NA Team 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on Another NA Team — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordArgius
Keeper of the Lightblessed kid
Nature's ProphetUSH
SvenCarJua
Shadow FiendRRL
MarciSkyward
TuskThe Warden
JakiroAretes
DisruptorFeelinG
RubickMoonlight
Model check result
Model favoriteAnother NA Team · 60%
Series resultAnother NA Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3