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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Another NA Team

Tusk
Tusk
The Warden · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
FeelinG · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
USH · 8 games
63%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RRL · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
FeelinG · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
The Warden · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
USH · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
USH · 4 games
50%

Lucky Bird

Tiny
Tiny
BlackSoul · 6 games
17%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Yadomi · 4 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1003 picks · 685 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
655 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
605 picks · 958 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 432 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
525 picks · 359 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1175 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
515 picks · 374 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
497 picks · 370 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% Another NA Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:38
Another NA Team 47%Lucky Bird 53%
The model gave 53% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArgius
57% · 141 game42% · 108 games
SniperRises
Sniper
Leshrac
LeshracRRL
53% · 177 games44% · 412 games
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightUSH
65% · 144 games47% · 420 games
Undyingempyrean5
Undying
Snapfire
SnapfireThe Warden
49% · 294 games
Enchantress
EnchantressFeelinG
55% · 184 games
Game 2prediction correct16:31
Another NA Team 49%Lucky Bird 51%
The model gave 51% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 28:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRRL
50% · 232 games45% · 100 games
AbaddonRises
Abaddon
Mars
MarsUSH
50% · 139 games51% · 252 games
BatriderBlackSoul
Batrider
Sven
SvenArgius
53% · 43 games48% · 485 games
Snapfireempyrean5
Snapfire
Mirana
MiranaThe Warden
53% · 196 games
Undying
UndyingFeelinG
54% · 227 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 58%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2