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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Penguins Squadloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Another NA Team

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RRL · 7 games
14%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 5 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Moonlight · 5 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
USH · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
Moonlight · 4 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
FeelinG · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
USH · 3 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Argius · 3 games
0%

Penguins Squad

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 3 games
33%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Crawler · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Crawler · 2 games
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ifrit · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Rabish · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Snow- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
521 picks · 354 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
493 picks · 485 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
479 picks · 425 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
365 picks · 429 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
351 picks · 343 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
314 picks · 160 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
282 picks · 690 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
275 picks · 177 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% Penguins Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Penguins Squad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:11
Another NA Team 46%Penguins Squad 54%
The model gave 54% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerArgius
45% · 95 games52% · 124 games
Primal BeastSatoshi-
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRRL
42% · 343 games56% · 572 games
TinySnow-
Tiny
Mars
MarsUSH
49% · 298 games55% · 151 game
Skywrath MageCrawler
Skywrath Mage
Silencer
SilencerFeelinG
46% · 133 games55% · 304 games
TuskIfrit
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThe Warden
44% · 282 games
Game 2prediction missed36:11
Another NA Team 44%Penguins Squad 56%
The model gave 56% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 23:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetArgius
50% · 190 games49% · 275 games
Death ProphetSatoshi-
Death Prophet
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRRL
53% · 115 games45% · 253 games
Ember SpiritSnow-
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterUSH
47% · 100 games54% · 195 games
ClockwerkCrawler
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickThe Warden
46% · 334 games47% · 138 games
SilencerIfrit
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorFeelinG
61% · 122 games
Model check result
Model favoritePenguins Squad · 56%
Series resultAnother NA Team 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2