The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionAPAntarctic Penguinsloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Geek Famwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Antarctic Penguins
Tinysignature
Kaka · 12 games
Rubicksignature
FelixCiaoBa · 11 games
Pucksignature
AlaCrity · 9 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
eGo · 9 games
Lichsignature
xNova · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
XCJ · 6 games
Disruptor
xNova · 6 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Ghost · 6 games
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 17 games
Snapfire
Hishge · 12 games
Tusk
NARMAN · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 12 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
709 picks · 448 bans
Tusk
595 picks · 551 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 451 bans
Treant Protector
506 picks · 560 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 385 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 222 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 557 bans
Nature's Prophet
361 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Antarctic Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Antarctic Penguins 45%Geek Fam 55%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaeGo
TerrorbladeSkem
Void SpiritAlaCrity
MagnusForce
UndyingXCJ
MarciRoddgeee
TinyFelixCiaoBa
HoodwinkNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct15:29
Antarctic Penguins 45%Geek Fam 55%
The model gave 55% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarcieGo
TerrorbladeSkem
ZeusAlaCrity
Nature's ProphetForce
RubickFelixCiaoBa
SnapfireNARMAN
UndyingXCJ
Bounty HunterRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 62%
Series resultGeek Fam 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2