Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionAPAntarctic Penguinswin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Antarctic Penguins
Tiny
Kaka · 17 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kaka · 11 games
Marcisignature
xNova · 10 games
Pucksignature
Somnus · 10 games
Razorsignature
Chalice · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Somnus · 8 games
Vipersignature
Chalice · 8 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
xNova · 8 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
341 picks · 338 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 329 bans
Mirana
219 picks · 226 bans
Pangolier
208 picks · 539 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 144 bans
Snapfire
203 picks · 110 bans
Leshrac
199 picks · 430 bans
Silencer
198 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Antarctic Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:26
Antarctic Penguins 39%Invictus Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 50:43.
Game 2prediction missed17:11
Antarctic Penguins 39%Invictus Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Antarctic Penguins in 38:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 61%
Series resultAntarctic Penguins 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2