The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesisloss 1:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
nounswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Speeed · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
nouns
Tinysignature
Lelis · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 18 games
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 227 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 750 bans
Gyrocopter
435 picks · 416 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 631 bans
Batrider
402 picks · 742 bans
Rubick
383 picks · 168 bans
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 1023 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 725 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total76% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:12
Apex Genesis 35%nouns 65%
The model gave 65% on nouns — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 51:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSammyboy
Chaos KnightYuma
Dragon KnightW1sh-
BrewmasterGunnar
Night StalkerFayde
TinyCopy
Winter WyvernSpeeed
MuertaLelis
Dark WillowBignum
VenomancerFly
Game 2prediction correct9:31
Apex Genesis 34%nouns 66%
The model gave 66% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherSammyboy
Storm SpiritCopy
Ember SpiritW1sh-
WindrangerYuma
AxeFayde
MarsGunnar
ClockwerkBignum
Keeper of the LightFly
Winter WyvernSpeeed
Dark WillowLelis
Game 3prediction correct12:32
Apex Genesis 36%nouns 64%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingSammyboy
Shadow FiendYuma
ZeusW1sh-
PangolierCopy
EnigmaFayde
UnderlordGunnar
GyrocopterSpeeed
Shadow DemonLelis
ClockwerkBignum
Treant ProtectorFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 76%
Series resultnouns 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3