ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesisloss 1:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Dark Willow
Bignum · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
Phoenix
YamSun · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
Windrangeroften banned
Sammyboy · 8 games
Shopify Rebellion
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Skem · 11 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 9 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Timbersawsignature
Yopaj · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
451 picks · 593 bans
Clockwerk
383 picks · 410 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 473 bans
Luna
328 picks · 398 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 596 bans
Dark Willow
295 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 341 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total78% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:28
Apex Genesis 35%Shopify Rebellion 65%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYamSun
AlchemistTimado
PangolierRCY
Visagemangekyou
DawnbreakerFayde
Ember SpiritYopaj
PugnaSpeeed
ZeusSkem
TuskBignum
BatriderHellscream
Game 2prediction missed38:12
Apex Genesis 36%Shopify Rebellion 64%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistYamSun
MorphlingTimado
BeastmasterFayde
PuckYopaj
Earth SpiritRCY
Visagemangekyou
PugnaSpeeed
Bounty HunterHellscream
Dark WillowBignum
Crystal MaidenSkem
Game 3prediction correct8:21
Apex Genesis 35%Shopify Rebellion 65%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingYamSun
MedusaTimado
PangolierRCY
Broodmothermangekyou
DawnbreakerFayde
InvokerYopaj
PugnaSpeeed
EnchantressSkem
TuskBignum
BatriderHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 78%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3