The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Apex Genesiswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
the hutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apex Genesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Speeed · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
the hut
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 723 bans
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 625 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 757 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1036 bans
Pangolier
358 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
Apex Genesis 77%the hut 23%
The model gave 77% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 25:20.
Game 2prediction correct20:50
Apex Genesis 77%the hut 23%
The model gave 77% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 28:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 77%
Series resultApex Genesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2