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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Norma · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
yowaai · 1 game
100%
Io
Iooften banned
flacko · 1 game
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshrac
dualrazee · 1 game
100%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 11 games
91%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Infernal · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
VaniLLl · 8 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 674 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 798 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 547 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
427 picks · 364 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
422 picks · 1002 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
393 picks · 912 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 763 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:6
Apple City Gang 52%ASAKURA 48%
The model gave 52% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 29:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marciyowaai
51% · 84 games51% · 121 game
Lifestealer7jesu
Lifestealer
Pangolier
Pangolierdualrazee
50% · 303 games52% · 216 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNorma
50% · 52 games53% · 78 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Muerta
MuertaAstral
51% · 140 games49% · 133 games
Leshracslimeyao
Leshrac
Io
Ioflacko
48% · 60 games44% · 91 game
ZeusVaniLLl
Zeus
Game 2prediction correct40:34
Apple City Gang 52%ASAKURA 48%
The model gave 52% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 43:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealeryowaai
55% · 93 games55% · 118 games
Phantom Assassin7jesu
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdualrazee
51% · 118 games47% · 229 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
46% · 311 games46% · 165 games
Sand KingVladikTheHtiviy
Sand King
Leshrac
LeshracAstral
48% · 76 games46% · 70 games
WarlockVaniLLl
Warlock
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenflacko
53% · 171 game53% · 187 games
Miranaslimeyao
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 53%
Series resultApple City Gang 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2