Apple City Gang vs End Game — prediction CCT Series 8 · Dota 2

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CCT Series 8 · BO3

result vs prediction

Apple City Gangwin 2:1

series probability

57%43%

probability at match start · final 2:1

EGEnd Gameloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Apple City Gang

Pangoliersignature

Norma · 8 games

75%

Marcioften banned

flacko · 7 games

57%

Terrorbladesignature

yowaai · 7 games

86%

Dark Seeroften banned

Norma · 5 games

40%

Night Stalkeroften banned

Norma · 5 games

80%

Clockwerk

Astral · 4 games

75%

Ember Spiritoften banned

dualrazee · 4 games

50%

Invokeroften banned

dualrazee · 4 games

75%

End Game

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

565 picks · 790 bans

49%

Muerta

452 picks · 324 bans

52%

Phoenix

441 picks · 684 bans

52%

Phantom Assassin

424 picks · 772 bans

53%

Bristleback

406 picks · 878 bans

56%

Clockwerk

406 picks · 388 bans

52%

Pangolier

390 picks · 530 bans

48%

Magnus

388 picks · 1076 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%

Hero pool strength57% Apple City Gang

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total57% Apple City Gang

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed15:47

Apple City Gang 55%End Game 45%

The model gave 55% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by End Game in 38:29.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo