European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Apple City Gangloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Apple City Gang
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 17 games
Ringmaster
flacko · 12 games
Tusk
QBFY · 12 games
Marcioften banned
flacko · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 8 games
Jakiro
flacko · 8 games
Medusaoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 8 games
Windrangersignature
queezy · 8 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
queezy · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 4 games
Warlock
Mary_y · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Alberkaaa · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
465 picks · 461 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 568 bans
Ringmaster
326 picks · 148 bans
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 582 bans
Terrorblade
277 picks · 518 bans
Bristleback
268 picks · 491 bans
Muerta
265 picks · 150 bans
Beastmaster
264 picks · 570 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:21
Apple City Gang 55%Runa Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Runa Team in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
MorphlingShigetsu
PangolierNorma
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Tinkerqueezy
Keeper of the LightFernans
Tinynicky`cool
Tuskflacko
SilencerHduo
Game 2prediction missed44:38
Apple City Gang 55%Runa Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Runa Team in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
Slardarnicky`cool
Kunkkadualrazee
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
DawnbreakerNorma
SlarkShigetsu
TuskFernans
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
Silencerflacko
WarlockHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 61%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2