Arcane vs Team Zero — prediction DPC2S3КЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

AArcaneloss 0:2

series probability

28%72%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Team Zerowin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Arcane

No games played over 6 months.

Team Zero

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

776 picks · 598 bans

47%

Disruptor

547 picks · 448 bans

54%

Tiny

436 picks · 381 bans

53%

Beastmaster

415 picks · 976 bans

58%

Nature's Prophet

405 picks · 685 bans

54%

Undying

399 picks · 595 bans

49%

Ember Spirit

389 picks · 914 bans

51%

Mirana

388 picks · 210 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%

Hero pool strength50% Arcane

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total72% Team Zero

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct23:25

Arcane 39%Team Zero 61%

The model gave 61% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 39:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo