Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionAArcanewin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Unitiesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arcane
No games played over 6 months.
Unities
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
779 picks · 588 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 380 bans
Nature's Prophet
419 picks · 695 bans
Beastmaster
412 picks · 960 bans
Undying
405 picks · 589 bans
Mirana
394 picks · 213 bans
Snapfire
392 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Arcane
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Unities
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Arcane 49%Unities 51%
The model gave 51% on Unities — the game was taken by Arcane.
Game 2prediction missed
Arcane 49%Unities 51%
The model gave 51% on Unities — the game was taken by Arcane.
Model check result
Model favoriteUnities · 51%
Series resultArcane 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2