Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs predictionAArcred.intwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arcred.int
No games played over 6 months.
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
577 picks · 463 bans
Mars
431 picks · 663 bans
Dragon Knight
405 picks · 528 bans
Puck
388 picks · 854 bans
Bane
384 picks · 261 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 632 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 553 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% Arcred.int
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Arcred.int 45%Rune Eaters 55%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Arcred.int.
Game 2prediction missed
Arcred.int 45%Rune Eaters 55%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Arcred.int.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 55%
Series resultArcred.int 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2