Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
ARCREDwin 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Iip-sportloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ARCRED
No games played over 6 months.
ip-sport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 649 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 485 bans
Bane
448 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
424 picks · 574 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 435 bans
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 621 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 551 bans
Death Prophet
338 picks · 803 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ARCRED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% ARCRED
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 58%
Series resultARCRED 1:0
Series predictioncorrect