Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Lion
Aui_2000 · 1 game
Eternity
Bane
Jubei · 7 games
Lion
Jubei · 6 games
Disruptor
Jubei · 5 games
Snapfire
Lil_Nick · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 4 games
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
350 picks · 519 bans
Snapfire
314 picks · 183 bans
Bane
305 picks · 244 bans
Weaver
297 picks · 657 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 739 bans
Tidehunter
252 picks · 398 bans
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 307 bans
Disruptor
225 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)13% vs 20%
Hero pool strength52% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Eternity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:17
Arkosh Gaming 49%Eternity 51%
The model gave 51% on Eternity — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 31:48.
Game 2prediction correct26:31
Arkosh Gaming 49%Eternity 51%
The model gave 51% on Eternity — the game was taken by Eternity in 42:04.
Game 3prediction missed29:31
Arkosh Gaming 49%Eternity 51%
The model gave 51% on Eternity — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 44:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternity · 51%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3