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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Arkosh Gaming

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
0%

Eternity

Bane
Bane
Jubei · 10 games
30%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Jubei · 7 games
14%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
29%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Cys · 4 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Rises · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Cys · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Rises · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 560 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 385 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 649 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
291 picks · 357 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
290 picks · 423 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
284 picks · 354 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 561 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:42
Arkosh Gaming 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 51:21.
Game 2prediction missed29:37
Arkosh Gaming 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Eternity in 51:57.
Game 3prediction correct30:26
Arkosh Gaming 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 37:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 57%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3