Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Feltloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Felt
Axesignature
Zore · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Zore · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
solji · 6 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 5 games
Bane
Steelborco · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Yellow Flash · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
444 picks · 266 bans
Mars
405 picks · 550 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 635 bans
Tiny
321 picks · 373 bans
Weaver
300 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 415 bans
Sand King
271 picks · 329 bans
Queen of Pain
270 picks · 437 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Felt
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:58
Arkosh Gaming 45%Felt 55%
The model gave 55% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 56:09.
Game 2prediction missed30:36
Arkosh Gaming 45%Felt 55%
The model gave 55% on Felt — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 38:43.
Game 3prediction missed42:19
Arkosh Gaming 45%Felt 55%
The model gave 55% on Felt — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 35:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 55%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3