Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
509 picks · 452 bans
Mars
497 picks · 694 bans
Bane
460 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 536 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 639 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 625 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:46
Arkosh Gaming 54%KBU.US 46%
The model gave 54% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by KBU.US in 32:18.
Game 2prediction missed23:38
Arkosh Gaming 54%KBU.US 46%
The model gave 54% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by KBU.US in 35:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 54%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2