Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LLegacywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Pudgeoften banned
Dendi · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
Rubick
Dendi · 1 game
Tiny
Dendi · 1 game
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
355 picks · 261 bans
Marci
311 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 213 bans
Undying
283 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 442 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 306 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:12
Arkosh Gaming 60%Legacy 40%
The model gave 60% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 32:21.
Game 2prediction missed17:50
Arkosh Gaming 60%Legacy 40%
The model gave 60% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Legacy in 42:16.
Game 3prediction missed19:34
Arkosh Gaming 60%Legacy 40%
The model gave 60% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Legacy in 34:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 60%
Series resultLegacy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3