Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
simply TOOBASEDwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
485 picks · 454 bans
Mars
484 picks · 677 bans
Bane
459 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 503 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 655 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 590 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 17%
Hero pool strength57% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:52
Arkosh Gaming 75%simply TOOBASED 25%
The model gave 75% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 55:47.
Game 2prediction missed36:46
Arkosh Gaming 75%simply TOOBASED 25%
The model gave 75% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 39:23.
Game 3prediction missed23:53
Arkosh Gaming 75%simply TOOBASED 25%
The model gave 75% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 31:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 75%
Series resultsimply TOOBASED 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3