Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2series probability
8%92%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Undyingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
442 picks · 329 bans
Mars
418 picks · 601 bans
Queen of Pain
352 picks · 429 bans
Weaver
348 picks · 782 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 182 bans
Kunkka
273 picks · 456 bans
Spirit Breaker
267 picks · 392 bans
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 339 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Team Undying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:39
Arkosh Gaming 8%Team Undying 92%
The model gave 92% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 27:52.
Game 2prediction correct32:50
Arkosh Gaming 8%Team Undying 92%
The model gave 92% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 41:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 92%
Series resultTeam Undying 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2