Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Cutwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
The Cut
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
114 picks · 252 bans
Mars
106 picks · 221 bans
Earth Spirit
99 picks · 81 bans
Void Spirit
93 picks · 148 bans
Phoenix
89 picks · 92 bans
Rubick
75 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 252 bans
Keeper of the Light
69 picks · 134 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:32
Arkosh Gaming 47%The Cut 53%
The model gave 53% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 31:37.
Game 2prediction correct13:33
Arkosh Gaming 47%The Cut 53%
The model gave 53% on The Cut — the game was taken by The Cut in 25:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 53%
Series resultThe Cut 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2