BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Dream Makerwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 12 games
Mirana
Lym- · 9 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 8 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Dream Maker
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
czy · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
TrazaM · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Lich
TrazaM · 1 game
Lion
czy · 1 game
Marsoften banned
TrazaM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 172 bans
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
Lina
263 picks · 443 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 523 bans
Luna
249 picks · 345 bans
Dragon Knight
246 picks · 334 bans
Winter Wyvern
244 picks · 250 bans
Terrorblade
235 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:20
Army Geniuses 48%Dream Maker 52%
The model gave 52% on Dream Maker — the game was taken by Dream Maker in 20:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedb-
BeastmasterNevermine
Sand KingwoMy
Rubickczy
Spirit BreakerMamangDaya
DawnbreakerTrazaM
MiranaLym-
Game 2prediction missed
Army Geniuses 51%Dream Maker 49%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Dream Maker.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 51%
Series resultDream Maker 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2