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BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 13 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
db- · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
woMy · 11 games
82%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 9 games
67%

Lilgun

Arc Warden
Arc Warden
423 · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
423 · 1 game
0%
Lion
Lion
Se · 1 game
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Se · 1 game
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tiny
ace12 · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
ace12 · 1 game
100%
Visage
Visageoften banned
eleven · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
375 picks · 601 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
323 picks · 214 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
315 picks · 555 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
253 picks · 482 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
242 picks · 373 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 137 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 271 bans
51%
Enigma
Enigma
211 picks · 734 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 17%
Hero pool strength55% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total72% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:36
Army Geniuses 62%Lilgun 38%
The model gave 62% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Lilgun in 50:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerinYourdreaM
39% · 114 games49% · 36 games
Lone Druid423
Lone Druid
Tiny
TinyYowe
52% · 268 games53% · 104 games
Broodmothereleven
Broodmother
Mars
Marsdb-
51% · 163 games55% · 259 games
Tuskace12
Tusk
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
45% · 79 games54% · 294 games
ClockwerkSe
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVarizh
45% · 69 games
Game 2prediction missed23:50
Army Geniuses 62%Lilgun 38%
The model gave 62% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Lilgun in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkinYourdreaM
48% · 19 games49% · 8 games
Arc Warden423
Arc Warden
Pangolier
PangolierYowe
49% · 134 games60% · 49 games
Spirit Breakereleven
Spirit Breaker
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerdb-
46% · 44 games41% · 187 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Tiny
Tinycml
49% · 224 games53% · 193 games
Tuskace12
Tusk
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorVarizh
69% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 72%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2