BIX Invitationals Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MCMoon Chaserswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 12 games
Timbersawsignature
woMy · 9 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Mirana
Lym- · 7 games
Grimstroke
Lym- · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 6 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
db- · 5 games
Moon Chasers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
452 picks · 176 bans
Snapfire
339 picks · 191 bans
Mars
337 picks · 538 bans
Puck
317 picks · 796 bans
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 477 bans
Nyx Assassin
311 picks · 619 bans
Tiny
290 picks · 233 bans
Enchantress
284 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Moon Chasers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:38
Army Geniuses 58%Moon Chasers 42%
The model gave 58% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Moon Chasers in 38:32.
Game 2prediction missed8:20
Army Geniuses 58%Moon Chasers 42%
The model gave 58% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Moon Chasers in 23:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 58%
Series resultMoon Chasers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2