BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Grimstroke
Varizh · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 10 games
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 7 games
Razoroften banned
db- · 7 games
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
465 picks · 641 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 478 bans
Bane
448 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
420 picks · 570 bans
Dragon Knight
376 picks · 438 bans
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 624 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
339 picks · 798 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:29
Army Geniuses 46%Nigma Galaxy SEA 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 42:00.
Game 2prediction correct34:43
Army Geniuses 46%Nigma Galaxy SEA 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 54:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2