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GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Thailand 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Polaris Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 16 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
woMy · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Azur4 · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 6 games
50%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 17 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
73%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Natsumi · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
709 picks · 525 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
513 picks · 998 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 542 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
398 picks · 731 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
376 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
340 picks · 346 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
303 picks · 341 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
296 picks · 608 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total66% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Army Geniuses 34%Polaris Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 66%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1