Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ragdollwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Lym- · 10 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 9 games
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 8 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Nature's Prophet
db- · 7 games
Ragdoll
Terrorbladeoften banned
vtFαded · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Gy · 2 games
Disruptor
Azrael · 2 games
Earthshaker
Yif · 2 games
Lion
Yif · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Azrael · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Ahjit · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Ahjit · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
276 picks · 419 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 397 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 652 bans
Bane
241 picks · 186 bans
Weaver
232 picks · 453 bans
Lina
212 picks · 475 bans
Void Spirit
210 picks · 256 bans
Lion
206 picks · 107 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 50%
Hero pool strength67% Ragdoll
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% Ragdoll
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:21
Army Geniuses 36%Ragdoll 64%
The model gave 64% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectredb-
TerrorbladevtFαded
Storm SpiritAzur4
Queen of PainAhjit
TidehunterwoMy
TimbersawGy
Dark WillowLym-
LionYif
BaneVarizh
ClockwerkAzrael
Game 2prediction correct27:43
Army Geniuses 35%Ragdoll 65%
The model gave 65% on Ragdoll — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 41:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritAzur4
Drow RangervtFαded
Faceless Voiddb-
Storm SpiritAhjit
TidehunterwoMy
MarsGy
Earth SpiritLym-
WeaverYif
BaneVarizh
ClockwerkAzrael
Model check result
Model favoriteRagdoll · 77%
Series resultRagdoll 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2