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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RSGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 9 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 8 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
db- · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 7 games
43%

RSG

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 654 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 488 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
451 picks · 274 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
426 picks · 573 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
373 picks · 434 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
371 picks · 621 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 552 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 806 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% RSG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% RSG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:26
Army Geniuses 45%RSG 55%
The model gave 55% on RSG — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 41:05.
Game 2prediction correct9:28
Army Geniuses 45%RSG 55%
The model gave 55% on RSG — the game was taken by RSG in 26:23.
Game 3prediction missed30:8
Army Geniuses 45%RSG 55%
The model gave 55% on RSG — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 32:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteRSG · 55%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3