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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
db- · 8 games
75%

SPAWN Team

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
dalul · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
TraVins · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 7 games
57%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Jikroy · 6 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
dalul · 6 games
83%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
411 picks · 414 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 376 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
382 picks · 260 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
297 picks · 308 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
252 picks · 301 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
240 picks · 124 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
212 picks · 150 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 565 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:19
Army Geniuses 52%SPAWN Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirendb-
62% · 85 games41% · 79 games
Shadow FiendJikroy
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KinginYourdreaM
48% · 207 games49% · 91 game
SlarkMamangDaya
Slark
Batrider
BatriderYowe
51% · 198 games47% · 73 games
TidehunterRed
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaJhocam
56% · 289 games51% · 450 games
Tinydalul
Tiny
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVarizh
48% · 187 games48% · 273 games
RubickTraVins
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Army Geniuses 51%SPAWN Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderYowe
47% · 240 games48% · 158 games
MorphlingJikroy
Morphling
Spectre
SpectreinYourdreaM
52% · 51 game45% · 168 games
PuckMamangDaya
Puck
Visage
Visagedb-
55% · 188 games47% · 143 games
BeastmasterRed
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaJhocam
55% · 361 game51% · 409 games
Tinydalul
Tiny
Undying
UndyingVarizh
52% · 236 games47% · 198 games
RubickTraVins
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 53%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2