OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 15 games
Mirana
Lym- · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 10 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 9 games
Axeoften banned
db- · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 7 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
350 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
293 picks · 107 bans
Mars
263 picks · 407 bans
Lina
257 picks · 509 bans
Pangolier
256 picks · 350 bans
Luna
235 picks · 332 bans
Shadow Demon
225 picks · 238 bans
Nyx Assassin
218 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:41
Army Geniuses 38%Team MagMa 62%
The model gave 62% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 37:28.
Game 2prediction correct6:27
Army Geniuses 38%Team MagMa 62%
The model gave 62% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 25:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 62%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2