Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTeam Mysteryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 17 games
Mirana
Lym- · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 8 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Puckoften banned
db- · 6 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 6 games
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Earthshaker
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
394 picks · 1014 bans
Mars
375 picks · 599 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 365 bans
Lion
360 picks · 189 bans
Void Spirit
320 picks · 508 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 682 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 227 bans
Snapfire
256 picks · 143 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 50%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect