Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 17 games
Mirana
Lym- · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 7 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 6 games
Juggernautoften banned
db- · 5 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 5 games
Team SMG
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ohaiyo · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 1002 bans
Mars
361 picks · 578 bans
Grimstroke
342 picks · 355 bans
Void Spirit
341 picks · 527 bans
Lion
334 picks · 177 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 700 bans
Tusk
306 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:28
Army Geniuses 42%Team SMG 58%
The model gave 58% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 28:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMamangDaya
SlarkMidOne
Puckdb-
Omniknightkpii
TidehunterwoMy
GrimstrokeAhFu
EnchantressLym-
Elder TitanRoddgeee
Game 2prediction correct6:21
Army Geniuses 40%Team SMG 60%
The model gave 60% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 25:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarMamangDaya
Troll WarlordMidOne
Puckdb-
Omniknightkpii
Legion CommanderwoMy
GrimstrokeAhFu
Shadow DemonLym-
Treant ProtectorRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 67%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2