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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
Jhocam · 24 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 13 games
85%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Jhocam · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
db- · 10 games
70%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
db- · 8 games
38%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 8 games
88%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 8 games
75%

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubick
Poloson · 13 games
46%
Undying
Undyingsignature
AhFu · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Moon · 11 games
73%
Bane
Banesignature
Poloson · 10 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
MidOne · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
AhFu · 10 games
70%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 9 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MidOne · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
817 picks · 576 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
594 picks · 407 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
524 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 419 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
481 picks · 774 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
430 picks · 891 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
430 picks · 307 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
375 picks · 284 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:38
Army Geniuses 49%Team SMG 51%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetdb-
53% · 243 games53% · 239 games
PangolierMoon
Pangolier
Pudge
PudgeinYourdreaM
47% · 135 games54% · 166 games
BroodmotherMidOne
Broodmother
Tinker
TinkerYowe
52% · 14 games49% · 338 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Doom
DoomJhocam
43% · 179 games53% · 70 games
EarthshakerAhFu
Earthshaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVarizh
47% · 242 games
Game 2prediction missed16:32
Army Geniuses 54%Team SMG 46%
The model gave 54% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Team SMG in 44:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightinYourdreaM
49% · 146 games50% · 120 games
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Nature's Prophet
Pugna
Pugnadb-
58% · 85 games37% · 209 games
MarsMoon
Mars
Tinker
TinkerYowe
50% · 15 games50% · 262 games
RubickPoloson
Rubick
Earthshaker
EarthshakerJhocam
53% · 77 games42% · 12 games
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Mirana
MiranaVarizh
59% · 280 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 52%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2