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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
XERXIAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 16 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
woMy · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Azur4 · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Azur4 · 6 games
50%

XERXIA

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
710 picks · 557 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 656 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
497 picks · 778 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
476 picks · 1001 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 421 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 399 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
310 picks · 156 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
298 picks · 559 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:10
Army Geniuses 36%XERXIA 64%
The model gave 64% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 29:14.
Game 2prediction correct12:35
Army Geniuses 36%XERXIA 64%
The model gave 64% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 28:13.
Game 3prediction correct24:38
Army Geniuses 36%XERXIA 64%
The model gave 64% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 53:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 64%
Series resultXERXIA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3