Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
ZeroTwoloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 3 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 2 games
Rikioften banned
db- · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
ZeroTwo
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 2 games
Ogre Magi
Poloson · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
CHYuan · 1 game
Linaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
50 picks · 84 bans
Puck
40 picks · 96 bans
Earth Spirit
36 picks · 29 bans
Void Spirit
36 picks · 52 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 56 bans
Phoenix
27 picks · 37 bans
Undying
26 picks · 51 bans
Nyx Assassin
25 picks · 82 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% ZeroTwo
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% ZeroTwo
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:58
Army Geniuses 47%ZeroTwo 53%
The model gave 53% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by ZeroTwo in 57:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMamangDaya
SpectreDreamocel
Rikidb-
Storm SpiritCHYuan
Sand KingwoMy
LinainYourdreaM
LeshracLym-
Marsxiaoyu154
little data
EnchantressPoloson
Game 2prediction missed37:15
Army Geniuses 43%ZeroTwo 57%
The model gave 57% on ZeroTwo — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 29:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMamangDaya
Phantom AssassinDreamocel
Leshracdb-
Timbersawxiaoyu154
MiranaLym-
ViperCHYuan
UnderlordwoMy
Void SpiritinYourdreaM
little data
UndyingPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteZeroTwo · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2