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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Hellbear Smasherswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 3 games
67%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
PuberrrR · 2 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
xannii · 2 games
100%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
79%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 23 games
65%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 20 games
80%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
56%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
458 picks · 179 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
349 picks · 194 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 550 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 811 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 478 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
315 picks · 613 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
297 picks · 237 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 362 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 67%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect