Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 30 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 19 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
447 picks · 269 bans
Mars
395 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
333 picks · 430 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 555 bans
Queen of Pain
307 picks · 471 bans
Tiny
292 picks · 315 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 370 bans
Kunkka
272 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:38
AS Monaco Gambit 32%Hydra 68%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:04.
Game 2prediction correct23:38
AS Monaco Gambit 32%Hydra 68%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 68%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2