Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 29 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 25 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 21 game
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
Rubick
Heaven · 19 games
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 18 games
Disruptor
VANSKOR · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
446 picks · 268 bans
Mars
372 picks · 517 bans
Queen of Pain
372 picks · 497 bans
Weaver
350 picks · 479 bans
Death Prophet
286 picks · 437 bans
Kunkka
282 picks · 501 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:33
AS Monaco Gambit 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:48.
Game 2prediction correct35:14
AS Monaco Gambit 41%Nemiga Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 28:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 59%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2