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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
399 picks · 1013 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 608 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
369 picks · 192 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
365 picks · 365 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
317 picks · 507 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 681 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 225 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
270 picks · 152 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% AS Monaco Gambit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:19
AS Monaco Gambit 59%Team Unique 41%
The model gave 59% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Team Unique in 40:42.
Game 2prediction missed18:28
AS Monaco Gambit 59%Team Unique 41%
The model gave 59% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by Team Unique in 32:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 59%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2