Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AS Monaco Gambit
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Bane
Kidaro · 8 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 5 games
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Antares · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Rubick
Antares · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
437 picks · 272 bans
Queen of Pain
389 picks · 498 bans
Weaver
354 picks · 495 bans
Mars
344 picks · 492 bans
Kunkka
285 picks · 475 bans
Wraith King
250 picks · 334 bans
Death Prophet
244 picks · 343 bans
Spirit Breaker
243 picks · 455 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% AS Monaco Gambit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% AS Monaco Gambit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:20
AS Monaco Gambit 61%X3 39%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by X3 in 41:41.
Game 2prediction missed26:14
AS Monaco Gambit 61%X3 39%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by X3 in 34:57.
Game 3prediction missed34:31
AS Monaco Gambit 61%X3 39%
The model gave 61% on AS Monaco Gambit — the game was taken by X3 in 38:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteAS Monaco Gambit · 61%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3