ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CSKA ESPORTSloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ASAKURA
Invokeroften banned
young G · 4 games
Lion
slimeyao · 4 games
Bounty Hunter
333 · 3 games
Lich
so bad · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
CSKA ESPORTS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
425 picks · 345 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 538 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 448 bans
Lion
357 picks · 188 bans
Tusk
355 picks · 376 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 816 bans
Gyrocopter
334 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% CSKA ESPORTS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:12
ASAKURA 50%CSKA ESPORTS 50%
The model gave 50% on CSKA ESPORTS — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 33:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteCSKA ESPORTS · 50%
Series resultASAKURA 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1