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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

Level UP

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 12 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Bor@nija · 8 games
25%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 592 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 739 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
378 picks · 533 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 152 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 689 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 301 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 538 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength63% ASAKURA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:20
ASAKURA 67%Level UP 33%
The model gave 67% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Level UP in 48:51.
Game 2prediction missed28:29
ASAKURA 67%Level UP 33%
The model gave 67% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:57.
Game 3prediction missed25:26
ASAKURA 67%Level UP 33%
The model gave 67% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 67%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3