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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 1:0
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 27 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 25 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 22 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 16 games
69%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 210 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 592 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 741 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 535 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 153 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 693 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 300 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 541 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ASAKURA 15%MOUZ 85%
The model gave 85% on MOUZ — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 85%
Series resultASAKURA 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1