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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
mellojul · 10 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
83%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Malady · 6 games
17%
Bane
Bane
Zayac · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
378 picks · 354 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
366 picks · 593 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 549 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
353 picks · 281 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 337 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
334 picks · 693 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
321 picks · 194 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
312 picks · 333 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
ASAKURA 28%Natus Vincere 72%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:13.
Game 2prediction correct33:13
ASAKURA 28%Natus Vincere 72%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2