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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
Nefrit · 9 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Malady · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 702 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
406 picks · 325 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 663 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 361 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 858 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 493 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
361 picks · 168 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:32
ASAKURA 23%Natus Vincere 77%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 49:18.
Game 2prediction correct26:29
ASAKURA 23%Natus Vincere 77%
The model gave 77% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:01:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2