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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team NextUploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

Team NextUp

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 7 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Petushara · 5 games
40%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
417 picks · 678 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 633 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
391 picks · 318 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 447 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
373 picks · 825 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 585 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:46
ASAKURA 70%Team NextUp 30%
The model gave 70% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 1:32:54.
Game 2prediction correct36:14
ASAKURA 70%Team NextUp 30%
The model gave 70% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 32:20.
Game 3prediction correct
ASAKURA 70%Team NextUp 30%
The model gave 70% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 70%
Series resultASAKURA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3