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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 17 games
47%
Techies
Techies
rue · 17 games
35%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Satanic · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 734 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 200 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
456 picks · 897 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 601 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
425 picks · 192 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 670 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
421 picks · 322 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
417 picks · 711 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:34
ASAKURA 29%Yellow Submarine 71%
The model gave 71% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 57:03.
Game 2prediction correct32:9
ASAKURA 29%Yellow Submarine 71%
The model gave 71% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 28:08.
Game 3prediction correct8:32
ASAKURA 29%Yellow Submarine 71%
The model gave 71% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 71%
Series resultASAKURA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3